The United States’ pursuit of a fifth consecutive gold medal is on.
Team USA cruised through the group stage of the men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics, earning the top seed in the quarterfinals after finishing with a perfect 3-0 record and tournament-best +64 point differential.
Now, it’s win or go home with three victories standing in the United States’ way of a finish atop the podium.
LeBron James, Kevin Durant & Co. have landed a first-round matchup with Brazil, who went 1-2 and finished third in Group B.
Brazil lost to powerhouses like France and Germany but beat Japan by 18 points, giving itself a narrow one-point-differential advantage over Greece to secure the final spot in the knockout round.
Does Brazil have enough firepower to challenge Team USA in the quarterfinals? The Sporting News breaks down the matchup below.
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USA vs. Brazil prediction, picks
The United States roll into the quarterfinals with an undefeated record and it would be ill-advised to pick against this team.
Head coach Steve Kerr’s starting lineups and rotations have been a big talking point but no matter the combinations on the floor, the result has been the same — a win. Team USA is just too deep with talent.
Kevin Durant had his big game, eviscerating Serbia for 23 points after hitting his first eight shots in his first action of the summer coming off a calf injury. Anthony Edwards had his big game, putting on a scoring clinic against Puerto Rico with 26 points to close out the group stage with a bang.
LeBron James has been Team USA’s engine, averaging a balanced 14.3 points, a team-high 7.3 assists and 6.7 rebounds to provide a steady hand.
We haven’t even gotten a signature Stephen Curry game, and the whole world knows that is a dormant volcano ready to erupt.
MORE: Taking a closer look at Steph Curry’s stats at the Olympics
Brazil is a formidable opponent, but it will struggle to match the United States’ speed and athleticism.
Former NBA first-round pick Bruno Caboclo has been a monster, averaging 16.0 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Other former NBA players like Raul Neto and Marcelo Huertas have kept the wheels turning on offense, posting 5.0 assists per game each. Vitor Benite has been one of the hottest shooters in the tournament, knocking down 56.3 percent of his 3s.
Brazil hasn’t produced enough offense to challenge Team USA, though. Its 80.3 points per game is the third-fewest in the tournament. The United States has posted 105.7 points per game — over 25 more than its opponent.
As good as Brazil has been defensively — holding all three of its Group Stage opponents under 90 points — it will be overmatched trying to keep up with Team USA’s scoring.
Prediction: USA wins
USA vs. Brazil betting odds
The betting odds for USA vs. Brazil have not been released. Check back for updates as they become available.
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline | |
| USA | — | — | — |
| Brazil | — | — | — |
USA vs. Brazil key storyline: Containing Bruno Caboclo, 3-point shooters
The United States’ roster is loaded with some of the most talented scorers in the NBA. It is so deep that certified No. 1 options like Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum and Devin Booker have not once been featured on offense and Curry hasn’t even gotten going.
The buckets will fall no matter what, and as mentioned above, Brazil will have trouble keeping up. That is why locking in on defense is what will propel Team USA to a victory.
Caboclo is coming off one of the most impressive games in the tournament against an undersized Japan team. He had 33 points and 17 rebounds while going 4-for-4 from 3-point range. Around him, Brazil has four different players who are shooting at least 40.0 percent from 3.
The United States’ second unit frontcourt of Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo should suffocate Caboclo on every touch inside the arc. They’re both agile enough to challenge his 3-point shot on the perimeter, too.
Long and athletic perimeter defenders like Tatum and Edwards should have no trouble containing shooters like Benite and Leo Meindl. Jrue Holiday (who is battling an ankle injury) and Derrick White will be a defensive nightmare for guards like Neto, Huertas and Yago Santos.
As long as Team USA is laser-focused on the defensive end it will have no problem handling Brazil with ease.
MORE: Kevin Durant becomes USA Basketball’s all-time leading rebounder
USA basketball schedule
Team USA went a perfect 5-0 during its pre-Olympics exhibition schedule and carried that momentum into the Games.
The United States swept Group C, defeating Serbia, South Sudan and Puerto Rico to advance to the knockout round.
You can find its full Olympic schedule and results below.
| Date | Stage | Opponent/Result | Time (ET) |
| July 28 | Group C | USA 110, Serbia 84 | — |
| July 31 | Group C | USA 103, South Sudan 86 | — |
| Aug. 3 | Group C | USA 104, Puerto Rico 83 | — |
| Aug. 6 | Quarterfinals | Brazil | 3:30 p.m. |
| Aug. 8 | Semifinals | TBD | TBD |
| Aug. 10 | Gold/Bronze Medal | TBD | TBD |
